Impact of climate-driven temperature increase on inland aquaculture: Application to land-based production of common carp (Cyprinus carpio L.).

Climate change will expose the food-producing sector to a range of challenges. Inland aquaculture farms are particularly vulnerable, due to the difficulty in changing their location, and therefore require specific tools to predict the influence of direct and indirect effects on production, environment and economic feasibility. The objective of our study was to apply a simple set of models to produce a set of growth, risk and suitability maps for stakeholders within the common carp sector in Poland, to assist decision-making under two different scenarios of climate change: a moderate situation (RCP 4.5) and an extreme situation (RCP 8.5). We used present (2000-2019) and future projections (2080-2099) for water surface temperature based on land surface temperature data from regionally downscaled climate models to draw maps to: (i) show optimal temperature conditions for carp growth, (ii) assess risk of disease outbreak caused by three important common carp pathogens: Cyprinid herpesvirus 3 (CyHV-3), carp oedema virus (CEV) and spring viremia of carp (SVCV) and (iii) predict potential suitability changes of carp farming in Poland. The study identified areas with the most and least favourable temperature conditions for carp growth, as well as those areas with the highest/lowest number of days with suitable temperatures for virus infection. These suitability maps showed the combined effect of direct and indirect effects of climate change projections under RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios. The approach applied herein will be of use worldwide for analysing the risks of temperature increase to land-based aquaculture, and the results presented are important for carp farmers in Poland and elsewhere, industry in general, and government stakeholders, to understand the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the triple bottom line of people, planet, and profit.

Identification of coronavirus sequences in carp cDNA from Wuhan, China.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-like coronavirus sequences were identified in two separate complementary DNA (cDNA) pools. The first pool was from a Carassius auratus (crusian carp) cell line and the second was from Ctenopharyngodon idella (grass carp) head kidney tissue. BLAST analysis suggests that these sequences belong to SARS-like coronaviruses, and that they are not evolutionarily conserved in other species. Investigation of the submitting laboratories revealed that two laboratories from the Institute of Hydrobiology at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Wuhan, China performed the research and submitted the cDNA libraries to GenBank. This institution is very close in proximity to the Wuhan South China Seafood Wholesale Market where SARS-CoV-2 first amplified in the human population. It is possible that these sequences are an artifact of the bioinformatics pipeline that was used. It is also possible that SARS-like coronaviruses are a common environmental pathogen in the region that may be in aquatic habitats.